2026-07-09



Religion / Tribal / Culture War and Re-Segregation

Info Rental / ShowBiz / Advertising

TechSuck / Geek Bait

AI Will (Save | Destroy) The World

Left Angst

Law Breaking / Police / Internal Security

External Security / Militaria / Diplomania

World

Iran / Houthi

  • US revokes Iran oil waiver after Hormuz attacks.

  • Iran war: Trump says ceasefire 'over' after fresh strikes

  • Just wondering what the correct model of Iran is here

    I read many, many commentators saying how good the final deal was for Iran, and what a major loss it was for Trump. I was never sure I understood all of the parameters of the full deal, but still I did not hold any directly contrary opinion to that. And now I see Iran is attacking ships in the Strait again, talking openly and brazenly about building nuclear weapons, and making plans to have tolls/fees on the Strait. To be clear, only the first of those surprises me, the latter two do not.

    But given their reckless behavior in what is supposedly a wonderful war outcome for them, what is the correct way to model what they would have done had Trump and Netanyahu not attacked? And what is the correct way to model our optimal response to that? The terrible things that are happening now, do they not reflect an underlying equilibrium that would have emerged anyway within a few years’ time, or do we hold some hypothesis here of extreme path-dependence, suggesting the Iranian government would have been less bellicose on more or less a permanent basis?

  • Iran, Not Trump, Is in Control of This War