2026-07-27


etc

  • Most Likely Future Filter: World Govt

    The great filter (a term I coined) is all the things that block simple dead matter from evolving into an advanced civilization easily seen from far away. Given that we see a vast universe of simple dead matter (~10^24 planets) not so evolved, this filter must be enormous. A few years ago I helped worked out a better math model of it. A key question is: how much of this filter remains ahead of us. And my best guess is: a substantial amount. It is not a try-try type step like many prior hard steps, as that would take hundreds of millions of years. It is more of a try-once step, that we either pass or fail within a cosmically short time. And that filter is mainly: the risk of a stable confining world govt.

    creating better governance mechanisms might help us to fix cultural drift and speed us to the first endpoint of robust interstellar colonization. If such better governance was directed by relatively adaptive values. But directed by other values, it might instead speed us to that last endpoint of an entrenched Earth govt that blocks such expansion. The fate that likely befell the aliens behind UFOs, if some UFOs have actually been aliens.


Rank Propaganda / Thought Policing / World Disordering

  • The tech revolution is stress-testing democracy

    This week, Britain installed its seventh prime minister in barely a decade. France has churned through almost as many in just a few years. Its next president may well be the once-outcast Marine Le Pen. In Germany, the far-right AfD, tiny just a few years ago, now polls in first place. Even East Asian democracies — often viewed as stable, cautious, even boring — have seen governments in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan struggle in the midst of growing public anger. And where populists are in power, the situation doesn’t seem that different. Donald Trump now hovers near the lowest approval rating of any modern American president at this point in their term. Can today’s democracies function?

    The larger explanation is that we are living through one of history’s great technological revolutions. And these transformations always produce deep anxiety and fear. The last technological transformation on this scale came between roughly 1880 and 1920. Electricity, the telephone, railroads, the automobile and movies overturned entire industries and ways of life. Millions left farms for cities. Global trade disrupted local economies. New fortunes appeared overnight, while old occupations disappeared. In this turmoil, frustration and anger found political pathways. The left turned to communism, the right to fascism. What followed were new mass movements, cultural upheavals and world war.

Religion / Tribal / Culture War and Re-Segregation

  • WTA to require all players to undergo genetic sex testing

    The Women's Tennis Association (WTA) is to require all players to undergo genetic sex testing in order to compete on the WTA Tour. The WTA's previous policy, last updated in 2024, allowed transgender women to compete on the Tour if they had lowered their testosterone levels to below 2.5 nmol/L continuously for the previous two years.

Edumacationalizing / Acedemia Nuts

World

Iran / Houthi

Israel

Health / Medicine