2024-11-14

it wasn't about the sheep, google's evils, open 286 motherboard, tri-format floppies, JPL and AMD layoffs, inflation is up and voters care, Trump names Musk DOGE, USS Edsall found, German politics


Horseshit


Religion / Tribal / Culture War and Re-Segregation

Info Rental / ShowBiz / Advertising

TechSuck / Geek Bait

Gubmint / Poilitcks / Law Making

  • New York City Council Votes to End Broker Fees Squeezing Renters

  • Backlash as San Francisco votes to transform stretch of highway into park

  • CFPB Details Carveouts for Financial Institutions in State Data Privacy Laws

  • FTC Stops H&R Block's Unfair Downgrading and Deceptive Promises of 'Free' Filing

  • U.S. Sets Targets to Triple Nuclear Energy Capacity by 2050 (HN comments)

  • Thune to succeed McConnell as next Senate GOP leader

  • The Election Wasn't a Realignment or a "Mandate"

    When all votes are fully counted, it looks like Trump will have won the popular vote by 1.5 points and have 1-4 point margins in the 7 swing states. That's not the kind of large margin of victory typically associated with realignment elections in which large blocs of voters shift from one party to another (e.g. 1932 or 1980). It's actually a narrower victory than Bush won in 2004 or Obama in 2012. Few would argue either of those wins was a realignment or a mandate. Biden in 2020 won the popular vote by a bigger margin (about 4.5 points) and had nearly the same electoral vote margin (306 for Biden in 2020; 312 for Trump this year). For those keeping score, I wrote at the time that Biden didn't have a mandate either. Trump's popular vote margin may actually be a little smaller than Hillary Clinton's was in 2016 (yes, obviously, she lost the electoral college).

  • Yes, inflation made the median voter poorer

    • In no part of the income distribution did wages grow faster while Biden was President than they did 2012-2020.
    • But, the change in median wages is not what matters; it is the median change in wages that does. And this metric was even weaker under Biden: lower than any period in the last 30 years other than the Great Recession.
    • People do not feel wages, they feel total income. And median growth in total income — post taxes and transfers — was not just historically low: it collapsed and was deeply negative from 2021 onwards.
      • Much of this decline is due to timing of pandemic stimulus and even less the “fault of Biden” than other things.

    To see why the median change in wages is the relevant object for thinking about the election, imagine a world where you had 3 different people: person A with an income of $4, person B with an income of $5, and person C with an income of $10. If four years later person A is now only making $1, person B is making $6, and person C is also making $6, the median income has increased! But if there were an election, the median worker — who is also the median voter — did not have a good last four years, financially speaking. Hence why the median change in income is the object of interest.

  • Lost In The Future

    Seemingly every single person on Earth with a blog has tried to drill down into what happened on November 5 — to find the people to blame, to somehow explain what could've been done differently, by whom, and why so many actions led to a result that will overwhelmingly harm women, minorities, immigrants, LGBTQ people, and lower-income workers. It's a terrifying time.

    Case in point: Regular people have spent years watching the price of goods increase "due to inflation," despite the fact that the increase in pricing was mostly driven by — get this — corporations raising prices. Yet some parts of the legacy media spent an alarming amount of time chiding their readers for thinking otherwise, even going against their own reporting as a means of providing "balanced" coverage, insisting again and again that the economy is good, contorting to prove that prices aren't higher even as companies boasted about literally raising their prices. In fact, the media spent years debating with itself whether price gouging was happening, despite years of proof that it was. People don’t trust authority, and they especially don’t trust the media — especially the legacy media. It probably didn’t help that they implored readers and viewers to ignore what they saw at the supermarket or when at the pump, and the growing hits to their wallets from the daily necessities of life, gaslighting them that everything was fine.

  • FBI seizes Polymarket CEO's phone, electronics

    The FBI seized Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan’s phone and electronics early Wednesday morning — just a week after the election-betting platform successfully predicted President-elect Donald Trump’s win, The Post has learned. The 26-year-old entrepreneur was woken up at 6:00 a.m. in his Soho home by law US enforcement officers who demanded his phone and electronics, a source close to the matter told The Post. It’s “grand political theater at its worst,” the source told The Post. “They could have asked his lawyer for any of these things. Instead, they staged a so-called raid so they can leak it to the media and use it for obvious political reasons.”

Trump

Left Angst

External Security / Militaria / Diplomania

World